Will we really have a “jobless” recovery? One man’s opinion.

Hopefully you had a chance to read Mike T’s excellent blog from last week, “What did 2009 teach us?” In his posting, Mike talked about the job market and some important changes in recruiting we saw this year. I’d like to piggyback on that post and talk about one area of the economy that has a lot of people nervous.

It’s just a two-word phase, but when these simple words are put together shock waves and fear are sent over the Internet, TV and radio. You saw the phrase in big-letter graphics on the news (usually in the scariest font and typeface they could find), and anchors on news stations would lower their voices an octave when they said the words for added drama.

The phrase? Jobless Recovery.

Personally, from what I’ve read and seen over the last year, I think the phrase is way more bark than bite. It’s important to remember that in any economic downturn, jobs are often very late in getting back on the recovery bandwagon. In fact, the modest recovery signs we’re seeing now have been almost textbook: the stock market gets back on track rather quickly, then businesses begin to stabilize and modestly improve–but, for obvious reasons, employers (especially those who let people go in 2008 and 2009) stay extremely gun-shy about hiring again.

A few people say the recessions of 1993 and 2001 featured jobless recoveries, but I’ve read that most economic experts dispute that; their contention is that these were relatively minor recessions, so a large influx of jobs after recovery should never have been expected.

I do think jobs will come back, although it will be slowly and (as with the repercussions of any economic shift) the jobs gained may not be the same as the ones lost. Of course, all this is small consolation to those poor individuals who were downsized over the past two years.

Though the job market is starting to show some signs of life, it’s still weaker than it’s been in decades, and to those out of work it I’m sure it feels very much like the start of a jobless recovery.

While we’re on the rain cloud side of things, I do think there will be some long-term, if not permanent, changes to recruiting. In this recession, so many organizations that took pride in never having layoffs had multiple rounds of cuts in just 2009. Vibrant companies that consistently posted double-digit growth each year saw the bottom drop out and had to close.

Even supposedly “recession-proof” industries like healthcare took it on the chin.

I think the effect of this deep decline could be an end to what I call “reflexive hiring.” Here’s an example: Joe in the Plastics Division of ABC Company finds a new job. Normally, human resources would spring into action, checking both internally and via their ATS for viable candidates, and then contact their favorite recruitment communications firm (I hear Alstin Communications in Philly is the best) to get a plan in place for finding Joe’s replacement. While I think they may still end up replacing Joe, CEOs, Managers and HR Departments will first step back and spend a lot of time asking questions like “Do we really need to hire a full time replacement for Joe?” “Could Sally and Frank handle it together?” “Should we absorb Joe’s Dept into XYZ?”etc.

Of course, other recruiting experts say the paragraph above is totally wrong–and I hope they’re right. Many feel that, while it certainly doesn’t seem like it now, once the recruiting tide turns things will get humming very quickly, and HR depts will be under the gun to find the best people for their organizations.

Any way you look at it, 2010 will be a very interesting year. I hope your organization sees robust growth and, if you’re on the job market, I hope you find an engaging career that truly rewards your talents and skills.

Thank you and best wishes for 2010.